Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $217,724$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 83.9)}}\) (asimptote \(259,280.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,239$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,109.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,109.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,633$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,703$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(846 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,116.8\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $341$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{356.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(356.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,393$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $194,511$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,858.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(175,858.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,065$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,763.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,763.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,248$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,805$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,984.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,984.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(0.508 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,595$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $174,577$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250,269.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 93.0)}}\) (asimptote \(250,269.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,474$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(38.2 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,800.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,800.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,632$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,193$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(32.3 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,559$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(0.48 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,775$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,784$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.5)}}\) (asimptote \(104,371.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(294.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,603$ on 2020-06-26
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,800$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,102.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18,102.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-26
Best fit exponential: \(95.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,614$ on 2020-06-26