Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Bahrain
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Iraq
  • Qatar
  • Israel
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Malaysia
  • Singapore
  • Georgia
  • Sri Lanka

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $217,724$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 83.9)}}\) (asimptote \(259,280.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,239$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,109.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,109.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,633$ on 2020-06-26

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,703$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(846 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(44,116.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $341$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(23.4 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{356.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(356.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,393$ on 2020-06-26

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $194,511$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,858.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(175,858.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,065$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,763.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,763.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,248$ on 2020-06-26

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,805$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(357 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,984.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40,984.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.508 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,595$ on 2020-06-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $174,577$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250,269.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 93.0)}}\) (asimptote \(250,269.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,474$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(38.2 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,800.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 135.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,800.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,632$ on 2020-06-26

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,193$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(32.3 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,559$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.48 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,775$ on 2020-06-26

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $92,784$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,371.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.5)}}\) (asimptote \(104,371.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 99.6)}}\) (asimptote \(294.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,603$ on 2020-06-26

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $22,800$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,102.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 39.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18,102.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(95.9 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(294.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,614$ on 2020-06-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 93%
Turkey recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 71%
Georgia recovered 66%
Sri Lanka recovered 59%
Qatar recovered 53%
United Arab Emirates recovered 35%
Tajikistan recovered 28%
Iran recovered 15%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,606$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,195.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,195.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(57.8 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.8)}}\) (asimptote \(116.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $191$ on 2020-06-26

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,955$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,219.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,219.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.29 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(25.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,104$ on 2020-06-26

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $919$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(156 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{874.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(874.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.67 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $125$ on 2020-06-26

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,014$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(202 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,296.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,296.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(5.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 13.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $384$ on 2020-06-26